Gold steady while Base metals fall in bleak demand prospects from China

Oil continues to gain on a promising outlook while Gold remained under pressure as the Dollar firmed.

Gold
On Tuesday, Spot gold gained about 0.3 percent to close at $1893 per ounce as the Dollar firmed ahead of the key US inflation data scheduled later in the week.
Markets are expected to have a keen eye on the US Consumer price figures (to be published on Thursday) for cues on inflation in the world’s largest economy. Mounting inflation concerns following the steady recovery in the US economy raised possibilities of monetary policy tightening by US Federal Reserve which supported the Dollar.
The US Federal Reserve have maintained the Interest rates near zero levels so as to help the economy get back on track. However, a hike in the interest rates will increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding gold which further pressured the prices.
An accommodative stance by global central banks amid potential inflation threats kept Gold elevated in the recent months.

Crude Oil
In yesterday’s trading session, WTI Crude ended gained about 1.2 percent to close at $70 per barrel. Bets on revival in Oil demand following the reopening of major economies and unlikely return of Iranian Oil in the global markets supported Crude Oil prices.
Markets will have a keen watch on the talks between Tehran and the world powers over revival of the Iran’s nuclear deal. However, Oil prices were further supported after the U.S. secretary of state signaled towards bleak chances of lifting sanctions against Tehran.
The gains for Crude were limited as the US Currency strengthened ahead of the key US economic data scheduled later in the week which further pressured the Dollar denominated Crude Oil.
China’s Crude imports dipped by 14.6 percent in May’21 (yoy) as maintenance at Chinese refineries amid the stern environmental norms limited the Oil consumption. Low demand from major Oil consuming nation China undermined the market sentiments and pulled the prices lower.

Base Metals
On Tuesday, Industrial metals on the LME traded higher despite of a stronger US Dollar as bets on recovery in global demand kept the prices elevated.
The eye catching rally in Industrial metals spectrum seems to have taken a pause following the bleak demand prospects from top consumer China. Industrial metal prices surged in the earlier months as optimism over a green revolution and movements towards a low carbon environment raised bets on increase in demand in the times to come.
However, strict energy consumption norms in China and soaring commodity prices hampered China’s industrial sector. Falling premium on imported metal, below expectation PMI figures and trade data amid concerns over further monetary policy tightening by PBOC has put a halt in the rally.
While markets cheered on reopening of major economies; low demand from top metal consuming nation China might remain a considerable headwind for the base metals spectrum in the days ahead.

Copper
LME Copper prices rose over 0.6 percent to close at $9964 per tonne as mounting supply worries from Chile & Peru, top Copper producing nations, masked the worries over bleak demand from China and supported the red metal prices.

Mr. Prathamesh Mallya
AVP- Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel Broking Ltd
9th June 2021