Gold up on a softer Dollar while Oil gains on prospects of tighter supply

Oil gains on prospects a tighter supply market following lack of clarity on the production stance by OPEC in the months ahead while an easing Dollar supports Gold.

Gold
On Monday, Spot gold ended higher by 0.3 percent to close at $1791.6 per ounce. The bullion metal scaled higher as the US Dollar and bond yield retreated boosting appeal for the safe haven asset Gold.
The Dollar eased after steady gains in the past week after the US employment data portraited no clarity over the progress in the US labor market. While the hiring by US companies soared, unemployment figures edged higher and the hourly earnings grew at a slower than expected pace.
Investors are expected to have a keen eye on the US Federal Reserve latest policy meeting minutes scheduled on Wednesday for cues on the central bank’s monetary stance in the coming months.
The yellow metal also found some support as the wild spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 pressured on investor sentiments. Extension of lockdown following the surge in infected cases in many regions of Asia, Australia and Europe hampered market sentiments.

Crude Oil
Most US markets were closed on Monday in observance of Independence Day.
On the first trading day of the week, Brent WTI Crude prices rose over 0.4 percent to close at $79.2 per barrel after the OPEC failed to reach an agreement in the ongoing meet. The Oil exporting group called off the meeting without any deal on the production stance in the months ahead after UAE objected to the easing production cuts and extending the output cuts.
Oil prices gained on bets on no additional Oil supply by OPEC and its allies after the earlier reports suggested unwinding of the production curbs infused in 2020 following the recovery in global demand.
However, worries over tighter pandemic led curbs in Asia, Australia and Europe following the increase in the Delta variant cases capped the gains for Crude.

Base Metals
Industrial metals on the LME ended mixed in yesterday’s trading session with Copper gaining the most amongst the pack. The base metals complex found some support after the Dollar edged lower’ however, stalling demand from China kept the prices in check.
Resurgence of Covid19 cases, high raw material prices and disrupted supply chain led to a slower than expected growth in China’s industrial sector in June’21.
The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which focuses on small and medium sized industries, dipped to 51.3 in June’21 from 52 reported in May’21. Even the exports orders were pulled lower as the wild spread of Delta variant of the virus took a hit on the global demand.
Copper
On Monday, LME Copper ended higher by 1.43 percent to close at $9511.0 per tonne despite of an evident slowdown in China’s manufacturing activities. A weaker Dollar and fund buying support kept the red metal prices elevated.
However, stalling demand from China, steady rise in inventory levels and resumption in mine supply kept a lid on the prices.

Mr. Prathamesh Mallya
AVP- Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel Broking Ltd
6th July 2021