Oil gains on prospects of increasing global output following a steady growth in demand.

OPEC planning to increase output on an optimistic outlook supported Oil prices while weakness in China’s industrial segment undermined the base metals.

Gold
In Yesterday’s trading session, Spot Gold gained about 0.4 percent to close at $1776.6 per ounce. The bullion metals scaled higher on the back of a lower Dollar and retreating US treasury yield ahead of the key US employment data.
Further supporting the safe haven Gold was the widely spreading delta virus the new variant of the covid19. Extension of lockdown following the surge in infected cases in Asia, Australia and Europe hampered market sentiments.
Investors will have a keen watch on any developments in the US economy for cues on the US Federal Reserve’s stance in the coming months. Any signs of tightening of the monetary policy by their central bank might lift the Dollar making the greenback denominated Gold less desirable for other currency holders.
Also reports suggesting that the US central bank might soon begin to clampdown the massive asset purchase program as soon as this year capped the gains for the yellow metal.

Crude Oil
On Thursday, WTI Crude gained 2.4 percent to close at $75.2 per barrel as depleting US Crude inventories, the prospect of strengthening demand, and a Reuters report that OPEC+ producers could increase output in the coming months supported the prices.
In the meeting, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies decided to move towards adding about 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil to the market between August’21 and December’21. The move came in on expectations of boost in fuel demand in the second half of the year following paced vaccination rates against COVID-19 and easing travel restrictions.
However, worries over increase in the highly contagious Delta variant infected cases in major Oil consuming nations kept the markets cautious.
As per reports from the Energy Information Administration, US Crude inventories dipped by 6.7 million barrel last week surpassing the market expectation of a 4.2 million barrel drop and reporting the sixth consecutive weekly fall.

Base Metals
In Yesterday’s trading session, Base metals on the LME ended mixed as prospects of sooner than expected rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and evident weakness in China’s factory sector continued to pressure the prices.
Soaring raw material prices dented manufacturing sector margins in May’21 and hampered growth in China’s industrial sector. In June’21, China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) dipped to 50.9 from 51 reported in May’21, data as per the National Bureau of Statistics.
The Caixin Manufacturing PMI (which tracks the small and medium scale industries) dipped to 51.3 in the similar time frame down from 52 reported in May’21, below market expectation of 51.8.
Lead found some support on worries of potential shortage as the inventories in the warehouse monitored by LME are down over 36 percent to 80250 tonnes in a span of about three months.
Copper
On Thursday, LME Copper ended lower by 0.6 percent to close at $9322 per tonne as slow growth in China’s industrial activities and high levels of LME inventories pressured the red metal prices.However, buying Copper in the beginning of the new quarter levied some support for the red metal prices.

Mr. Prathamesh Mallya
AVP- Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel Broking Ltd
2nd July 2021